Despite all the happy talk about "recovery" and higher growth, wages have gone nowhere since 2000--

and for the bottom 90% of workers, incomes have fallen over 10% since 2002.

Why are falling wages for the bottom 90% a problem?

Our Federal Social Programs--Social Security...

August 1, 2017

 I resist posting what some called "Doom Porn" on the blog, as it does not reflect my great enthusiasm for a variety of developments in transport, tech and finance in the future. 

There are a lot of great things happening in the world, and record setting values in...

I have been waiting for a graphic that could put Bitcoin in perspective.  As a visual learner, these kinds of images provide a clear view of the relationship of this "new" financial instrument and the rest of the financial world.  

I say financial instrum...

June 16, 2017

Importantly, as prices decline it will trigger margin calls which will induce more indiscriminate selling. The forced redemption cycle will cause catastrophic spreads between the current bid and ask pricing for ETF’s. As investors are forced to dump positions to meet m...

April 30, 2017

“I made my money by selling too soon” – Bernard Baruch

There is no doubt that the market can grind higher to more dizzying valuations. However, there is also strong historical evidence that this market will normalize to average valuations.

In the wisdom of Bernard Baruc...

April 23, 2017

As shown, there have been two previous periods in history that have had the necessary ingredients to support rising interest rates. The first was at the turn of the previous century as the country became more accessible via railroads and automobiles, production ramped...

Here’s how you read the chart:

• The upper end of each squiggly line is the first Wall Street consensus estimate; the bottom of each line is the last.

• Note that for 2016 (the orange line), the first estimate was for $137 earnings per share on the S&P 500 Index, and the...

April 3, 2017

Another stellar outperformance by silver to start the year.

Are you watching the NCAA Men's/Womens' Basketball tournament?

With both Oregon teams making the Sweet 16, local interest is very high. 

Here is a quick look at the future of live events presented in two parts.

First a look at Virtual Reality from...

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Portfolio Justification and Devils' Advocacy