Look Familiar?

April 10, 2017

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Caution

August 1, 2017

 I resist posting what some called "Doom Porn" on the blog, as it does not reflect my great enthusiasm for a variety of developments in transport, tech and finance in the future. 

There are a lot of great things happening in the world, and record setting values in the US Equity Markets are one of these things. 

 

Apologies for the chart intensive post, again Lance Roberts at Real Investment Advice has provided a great summary.

 

I know…I know…

There seems to be absolutely nothing that can derail the current bull market.

  • Geopolitical conflict – NOPE

  • Political intrigue – NOPE

  • Fed Reserve reducing liquidity to the markets – NOPE

  • Lack of expected tax cuts, reform, and infrastructure spending – NOPE, NOPE, and NOPE.

With markets near records, investors seem to have very little to worry about.

But maybe, it is the very fact that everything seems so ebullient that we should take a bit of a contrarian position. As I wrote previously:

        “First, “record levels” of anything are records for a reason. It is where the point where previous limits were reached. Therefore, when a ‘record level’ is reached, it is NOT THE BEGINNING, but rather an indication of the MATURITY of a cycle. While the media has focused on employment, record stock market levels, etc. as a sign of an ongoing economic recovery, history suggests caution.  The 4-panel chart below suggests that current levels should be a sign of caution rather than exuberance.”

 

 

 

However, while economic data suggests we may closer to the end of the current economic cycle than the beginning, data related specifically to the stock market may also be suggesting the same.

Let’s take a look:

For a dozen more charts and a deep breath, see entire post here

 

 

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